[Salon] A forgotten war



Cutting edge Middle East news analysis from ArabDigest.org

A forgotten war

Summary: Sudan is into its ninth month of a civil war that has brought the country to the edge of disintegration but the war is receiving little attention even as diplomatic efforts to end it continue to flounder.

Several sessions of the just concluded Doha Forum focussed, appropriately, on the war in Gaza. But on Monday there was one session that dealt with the Sudan war, a conflict that has raged since April with catastrophic consequences for the country of 46 million. The fighting between two generals - Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, otherwise known as Hemedti - has left at least 10000 killed and many more thousands injured. The number of people displaced by the fighting now numbers 7 million with about 1.5 million fleeing into neighbouring countries, mostly into Chad which itself is highly unstable. 19 million children are unable to attend classes. Large parts of the capital Khartoum have been damaged and fighting in Darfur has seen the nightmarish return of what the Economist is calling the “genocidal militia” of Hemedti’s  Rapid Support Forces (RSF.)

Mike Hammer the US Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa had just arrived at the Doha Forum from a meeting in Djibouti. He said that he had returned with “some sense of optimism” citing the fact that General Burhan the head of the army turned up in person and Hemedti, who has gained the upper hand in the war, was “contacted by phone.” The ambassador said that both had agreed to an unconditional ceasefire and to a one to one meeting in two weeks time to “try to bring an end to this conflict.” He took heart from the fact that the meeting was held as a result of an initiative of the Djibouti-headquartered Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD.)

He noted the stalling of the Saudi-led Jeddah talks which he attributed to the failure to follow through on commitments. (Both sides, as we noted in our 26 May newsletter, accepted calls for ceasefires that they then assiduously ignored.) Ambassador Hammer decried the civilian death toll and was at pains to denounce “atrocities that are reprehensible, atrocious, the sexual-based violence against women is abhorrent”. He added  “we in the international community must all rally together in support of these African efforts” that include IGAD and the African Union (AU.) He also argued that the belligerents “don’t have a future in Sudan” a statement that struck a rather naïve note.

The moderator, International Crisis Group president Comfort Ero, asked him how it would be possible to achieve the goal of getting rid of the rival generals. It was a question that the US envoy left hanging in the air while reiterating that “there is no acceptable military solution” and there must be a return to civilian governance. He did allow, however, that he was pleased to see the engagement of the UAE (a principal backer of Hemedti) and the African nations in pursuing a resolution to the conflict, prompting Ero to comment that the US “had grabbed the leadership and then dropped the ball.” That, said the ambassador with a chuckle, was “the price of leadership.”


More than half the 570,000 people who have fled the conflict in Sudan for safety in Chad have settled in the eastern border town of Adre [photo credit: @WHOAFRO]

Someone else who had just flown in to Doha from the Djibouti session was the Sudanese political analyst Kholood Khair. Khair is the founding director of the think tank Confluence Advisory based in Khartoum. She wasted no time in debunking the idea that a commitment from either Burhan or Hemedti had any value. “If there is anything we know about these two gentlemen is that they do not keep to their word.” She reminded Ambassador Hammer that in 2021 a previous US special envoy had been assured by Burhan and Hemedti, who were then in an uneasy alliance, that they would not overthrow the civilian government of Abdalla Hamdok. “They did precisely that less than three hours later.”

The trust deficit between the two is such that any commitment made either in public or in private in Jeddah or Djibouti will not be realised: “I personally do not have any faith in the idea that they will meet in the next two weeks.”

For Khair the focus now should not be on a “frankly lacklustre” diplomatic effort to bring the two together but rather it should be on the humanitarian crisis their war has plunged Sudan into. She also questioned the emphasis on Sudan being viewed as an African problem that required African solutions. “This isn’t an African problem, this is a very globalised problem,” Khair said, noting Sudan’s position on the Red Sea, on the Horn of Africa, in the Sahel and it’s proximity to North Africa and therefore to Europe.

She called for a mandate committed to the protection of civilian lives that might well include boots on the ground. She noted that the country was facing a famine caused by crop failure and that humanitarian funding pledges were only at 40%. Sudan is on the verge of disintegration and “the stakes could not be any higher.” Sanctions that cut off funds to the warring factions cannot be ad hoc but part of a wider strategy that has at its core the protection of civilians. For its part civilian society must set aside personal politics and find core principles that will “unite us as a country.”

Hers was a message that resonated in Doha but whether it will have impact beyond remains very much in doubt.


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